With just 20% employment, what would a post-work economy look like?

Envisioning a Future Where Only 20% of Adults Are Employed: What Would a Post-Work Society Resemble?

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and automation are prompting profound questions about the future of work. Recent research by leading AI scientists estimates that there is an 80-85% chance that, by the mid-2040s, only a fraction—around 20%—of adults worldwide will remain engaged in paid employment. This startling projection raises essential discussions about the societal and economic frameworks that will underpin such a transformation.

Academic and economic experts support these predictions. In their work, “A World Without Work,” authors highlight the inevitability of widespread automation displacing traditional jobs. Similarly, Martin Ford’s “Rule of the Robots” explores how technological progress could reshape labor markets altogether. Currently, much of the economic community’s focus is on envisioning sustainable models for a society where work is no longer central to individual purpose or economic stability.

Forecasts suggest that by the early 2030s, universal basic income (UBI) programs may become a standard policy tool across many nations, providing an essential safety net amid widespread automation. However, beyond UBI, questions remain about what additional measures will be necessary. Potential options include automation dividends—distributions of profits from automation technologies—to ensure broader wealth sharing, universal basic services like healthcare, housing, and food security, and the preservation of unpaid roles that serve social, cultural, or community-building purposes.

A critical concern in this future scenario involves ownership: who will control the AI systems, robotics, and essential infrastructure powering our economy? Ownership and access to these technologies could significantly influence societal equity and power dynamics in a post-work world.

As we look ahead, one of the most engaging questions is: What kind of hybrid economic model will emerge—combining technological innovation, social welfare, and new forms of value creation—to sustain a society where work is no longer the central pillar?

What are your thoughts on the shape of this future economy? How can we ensure it benefits all members of society rather than a select few?