The Future of AI: A Historical Perspective on Social Change

In an engaging dialogue with my colleague Gemini, we explored the profound implications of artificial intelligence (AI) for our collective future. As we navigate this rapidly evolving landscape, it’s essential to look back at history, which reveals a consistent pattern regarding the rise of new technologies and the societal transformations they engender.

The Cycle of Technological Advancement and Social Stratification

Historically, each significant technological advancement—whether it be agriculture, the inception of the printing press, or the advent of the internet—has initiated a cycle where a select group gains disproportionate control over new resources. This small cadre of elites rapidly amasses wealth and influence, manipulating laws, shaping cultural narratives, and quashing any dissent that threatens their position. This scenario tends to favor the powerful and perpetuates an imbalanced system, which we often see as the “elites win” narrative.

However, this initial phase of consolidation inevitably leads to fractures within the system. As disparities become stark and the majority’s plight grows increasingly untenable, a tipping point is reached, typically through some form of systemic crisis. It’s at this juncture that the conversation shifts dramatically from mere reform to a more revolutionary stance. Out of this turmoil emerges a new social contract, shaped by the realities of the crisis.

Assessing the Odds: Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Reform

When scrutinizing these historical cycles, there are compelling observations regarding which factions emerge victorious.

In the immediate future, it’s likely that elites will maintain their power as AI continues to proliferate. However, over the long haul—the result of inevitable suffering and societal pressure—a push for reform becomes unavoidable.

A Case Study in History: The Roman Republic

Consider the evolution of the Roman Republic, which did not transform into an Empire overnight. For centuries, an aristocratic class monopolized power, suppressing reformist voices while fattening their own coffers. Though they prevailed time and again, their victory culminated in a weakened Republic that eventually disintegrated into civil war, setting the stage for a more stable, albeit authoritarian, Empire.

Similarly, the Gilded Age showcased the triumphs of the robber barons, who wielded vast monopolies and influenced political landscapes to their favor. Their reign of prosperity crumbled amidst the repercussions of their unchecked greed, leading directly to the cataclysm of the Great Depression and sparking the political momentum necessary for the New Deal