The Unlikely Reality of Universal Basic Income (UBI) in an AI-Driven Future

The discussion surrounding Universal Basic Income (UBI) often sparkles with hope, particularly amidst fears of job losses due to Artificial Intelligence advancements. However, it’s essential to approach this topic with a realistic perspective, as the likelihood of widespread UBI implementation remains uncertain.

Many individuals postulate that those who lose their jobs to AI will automatically qualify for UBI, allowing them to maintain their previous standard of living while contributing little to the economy. This overly optimistic view fails to consider the practicalities involved. It’s likely that a significant portion of white-collar jobs will indeed be affected by technological advancements, yet a substantial number of these positions will still exist—about 20% to 50% may remain.

It’s essential to recognize that the government is not positioned to simply replace lost incomes with UBI, especially for individuals who previously earned substantial salaries. A scenario where someone like “Bob,” who once earned $100,000 annually, is put on a UBI plan that allows him to enjoy the same lifestyle without contributing to the workforce is highly improbable.

As job displacement becomes more prevalent, those affected will need to seek new employment opportunities actively. The reality is that failure to secure a new job could lead to severe financial hardship. Furthermore, as the pool of available labor increases while demand remains stagnant, wages are expected to decrease, which could significantly impact living standards across the board.

As economic disparities widen, we may witness shifts akin to those in developing countries—where fewer people can afford cars, and motorcycles become more common. Additionally, we might observe an increase in multi-generational living situations and a rise in informal housing conditions.

In summary, while the notion of UBI appears appealing, the genuine likelihood of its implementation in response to widespread job displacement appears slim. The gaps between the wealthy and the struggling may continue to expand, presenting society with significant challenges that will require innovative solutions beyond the concept of unconditional income support.